Nintendo Wii Fanboy

I think this prediction will end up being fairly accurate if Nintendo doesn't do something to shore up quality 3rd party support. Personally outside of the first party titles I find all of the current 3rd party games to be rather poor. The unfortunate thing is that the 1st party games are too few and far between. Where is Super Smash, where is Mario Kart? Instead we are getting a schload of VC titles which is novel depending on the title but NOT quality support that makes me believe in the console.

They have a great install base and are off to a great start, but so was the Gamecube. Please Nintendo, prove me wrong. Don't make the Wii Gamecube2 in execution as well as system performance.

Thats my .02 anyway.

Reply

I really doubt it. In 5-7 years, maybe. But my theory on that figure is that I feel the Wii was sort of an experiment for Nintendo that has obviously succeeded beyond their expectations. It's obvious that we won't see a PS4 until maybe 2012 or later. If we ever do at all. However, I think Nintendo will come out with a successor to the Wii in maybe 3-4 years. But if you figure in this new "Wii 2" Sony will likely never catch up.

Reply

I should add that I don't actually have that much faith in what Sony has done yet so far either, I just think their marketing muscle and eventual third party support will eventually catch up and be what it takes to push it to the top.

I'd rather see combination of X360 and Wii "win" out and Sony take a beating just to teach them not to do the silly things they did with the current console (Blu-Ray, Price, crappy network), but oh well.

Reply

I just don't think the Wii will get the 3rd party games to drive the console. The first party lineup is great, but that isn't good enough for the versatile demands of gamers. However, what we end up with will probably be fine for all the newcomers we're getting.

A big concern of mine is that we're in a time where SD video is becoming decprecated, the Wii's 480p is going to become antiquated in a few years. SD broadcasts are going away (in the US). I like the Wii...but the games are so damn ugly compared to the other two consoles. It works with Wii sports and cartoonish games, but it fails miserably in "serious" games (Madden, Tiger, Far Cry, Call of Duty, etc.). I was expecting at least upper-tier Xbox visuals but ended up with sub-PS2 visuals in some cases. It's disappointing.

The remedy is high-quality games. Nintendo is the best provider of those, but that's not necessarily a good thing for a successful future.

I bet the analysts just don't know what to think of the Wii since it's so separated from the other two.

Reply

I've still got my money on a much more even split (50% Wii, aprox 65 million units. 35% 360, approx 45.5 million units. 15% PS3 aprox 19.5 million units)

This is because; yes; Wii has 3rd party support, but (by all indications) it will sweep Japan as thoroughly as PS2 swept Japan, with PS3 taking GC's former Japanese position. The split will be even in America (Wii and 360 at too close to call) with PS3 at a distant 3rd, mirroring the split between the PSP gamer and the DS gamer

Europe too shall be the domain of the Wii, due to the fact that PS3 doesn't seem as hot out of the gate as imagined, and many top-tier 360 titles are being legislated away (like how Germany refused to rate Crackdown)

No one console shall get perfect 3rd party support, as opposed to PS2. Wii seems lacking in traditional 3rd party titles (but getting some great quirky/original titles), 360 is getting little love from Japan, and PS3 is losing exclusivity left and right

Reply

Online gaming is the future. Unless Nintendo figures out the online component (no. friend/wii codes don't count) their success could be short lived. Lack of onlne gaming will greatly limit the system's longevity and open the door for Sony to take the lead. Hopefully all of this early success will spur more and better 3rd party developent which will help, but online will be key.

Reply

@ srevoal

I must argue that point, not that online gaming is the future, but that "friend/wii codes don't count"

As much as i find Nintendo WFC to be lacking, i have to admit 2 things
1. It's easy to connect to (aside from my shitty DSL modem), no accounts needed to signup, a system much easier to connect to (albiet harder to use overall) than PSN or LIVE
2. The matchmaking is adequate (runs as good with few users online as it does with many) and the games themselves are fun

As much as i'd like to see Nintendo pursue something broader (at least enable random chat, please!) i have to admit that the "Community" aspect of Online gaming is only essential on an MMO

There's a reason why WiFiConnection is growing faster than LIVE (3 million unique users in 1.5 years vs. 6 million Gold and Silver accounts in 5.5 years), and that's ease of use. Believe me, i'm with you when you bitch about friend codes, but i don't think they'll really hurt nintendo in the long run

Reply

@ Mr Khan - Don't forget that NWFC is also FREE!

I think Sony will definitely start moving more units once they get some games that don't suck. I plan on buying a PS3 myself someday, but since I'm in no hurry, I'm waiting for a price drop, better games, and better online support for said games. I think ultimately Sony will do a much better job with online multiplayer than Nintendo. I also think Sony will move more units when Bluray becomes more ubiquitous and HD TVs become the standard.

Reply

Sounds like another one of those left-field statements that goes against the grain meant to drive traffic to whoever made the statement - just like that crazy article that stated miyamoto is over rated. I read the headlines, but I purposely do not hit the link to the actual story. I don't want to give my support to a bunch of idiots.

Reply

I think we actually may see the PS3 edge out the wii over time. The wii currently has the pricepoint and innovation in controllers but over time as the PS3 component prices descrease and the online features become more well articulated I think the price will decrease and market share increase. When prices become more comprable and designers start making games that take advantage of the PS3's capabilities the desparaty in graphical strength of the will will begin to become a greater factor.

I say all this hoping I'm wrong but the reality is that the market is perfect for the wii today, but over time it's weaknesses will become more pronounced when put up to the competition.

Reply

While it certainly sounds rediculous, I can see how the Wii could start to see dark clouds looming.

If, for example, Hell froze and the PS3 dropped its price to 300 or 400, that would be a serious problem. Im sure that sales for the PS3 would rocket.

Although, i must contend, that i still think the 360 is the real competition here. If Nintendo is doing everything they to undermine some of Microsofts exclusive titles, they are foolish. The 360 has some titles i would really like to play - but money (plus just really not wanting to buy one) keeps me away from that moment of weakness.

It also should be noted that Halo is NOT the game im waiting for. Im a PC gamer first and foremost - and with Halo 2 being released on the PC, i can certainly expect Halo 3 to be released as well, and even then, im largely nonchalant about the whole thing.

HD has always meant litle or nothing to me - again, i confess 720p would be nice, (480p is a bit of a letdown), but again, would it ever influence me? hardly.

Nintendo will reign supreme. It will only be too soon before Final Fantasy loses its exclusive arrangement - If it comes to the Wii, we win. If it goes to the 360, we had better hunker down - itll be a cold winter.

-Red

Reply

Actually, the status quo looks right to me. I don't think the PS3 will catch up to the Xbox or Wii in the U.S. I think in 5 years it will still be:

360
Wii
PS3

I just don't see the need for the most expensive console (PS3). With the loss of exclusives and the price drops expected for the Blu Ray players... Why would I want to spend $600 on a HD gaming experience, when I can get one for $400? I don't see any added value to owning an PS3 over the 360 except for free online playing. But even then, it'd take 2 years to equalize the value.

Now... In a couple years, when the PS3 is cheaper. I could see myself buying a "media center" with a HD player, gaming console, SACD player all rolled into one.

Reply

One word:

Impossible

Reply

I still see a strong chance of the Wii ending up on top here - strongly contingent upon the success of the Blue Ocean strategy and an inability on MS's part to rebrand the 360 away from being as 'hardcore'.

Right now, the branding of both the 360 and the PS3 is tied up in hardcore gaming. Frankly, it turns people off who don't really fit into that demographic. (Moreso the PS3 branding - 360 is more neutral, but certainly isn't a casual brand. 'xbox' on it's own is a name with segment appeal, although at least the 360 aesthetics aren't nearly as obnoxious)

The real question to be answered is whether or not the Blue Ocean strategy has legs when it comes to video games - will the initial surge in audience reach the critical mass it needs to be self sustaining. (ie. enough non-typical Wii owners getting others interested and creating enough real demand within the non-traditional markets)

As far as third party support goes - it's all going to be down to share. We haven't yet gotten to the point where we're going to see the benefits of the Wii's early success - but you can bet that the unexpected success of the platform means that there are more Wii games in development right now than there would have been otherwise. This will lead to better exploitation of the hardware by devs, which in turn leads to better games, which in turn leads to better console adaptation.

Future dev is driven by current market share. Right now, the Wii and 360 are both sitting pretty - exploiting, largely, totally separate markets. Sony's problem is that there's really no room to wedge the PS3 in there. The 360 has traction in the HD/traditional console space due to games like Halo, and the Wii is capturing the markets for casual games, classic games, and those interested in departures from standard console fare. What this means is without some really good exclusives, the PS3 is going to have a lot of trouble building enough of an install base to convince developers to target it (there's already much discussion about how much easier the 360 is to build games for, and how most of the HD games are going to be 360 native and ported to PS3 hardware). And the PS3 is losing exclusives left and right.

So... I disagree with Gardner. I don't know that the Wii will be in first in five years - but I doubt the PS3 will. The 360 stole the PS3's thunder in the existing market, and the Wii blew open new markets. It's going to take some monster killer apps for the PS3 to come back.

Reply

Anything is possible at this point. I still think Nintendo will dominate this generation. You claim that lack of 3rd party support will hurt sales, but only if you look at it in terms of a hardcore gamer. For casuals, they may buy the system for one game. The reason the PS2 has been selling well lately is Guitar Hero I&II. All Nintendo needs is a few casual games to cater to the casual gamers, and they will continue to sell well.

Once that happens, 3rd parties will start supporting it with casual games. I don't Nintendo will have much of a problem this generation.

Reply

Right now, #1 is Nintendo's to lose. They will pass xbox360 before the year's end, and they will continue to outsell PS3 until November atleast. I got laughed at on most message boards I posted this on over a year ago (I think shortly after the controller was announced) but they NEEEEED more full motion games. 2-3 more would send a message to third parties.

By full motion I mean the likes of Wii Sports. I hear Tiger Woods golf is not bad once you get used to the mechanics, I've been meaning to try it. In any case, we need more games like that. But most importantly, we need games like that in genres other than sports (sports is the easiest, so I'll take what I can get right now).

Proper full motion swordplay. We need a full motion FPS that feels heavy (a completely fresh look will have to be taken of the genre... make reloading a chore, not a jolt or button press. Be able to backhand someone with your gun hand etc.).

"Gestures" were okay for release titles. But now we need to start seeing a new calibre of games. Games that the system was designed to play. And this will determine the long-run success of the wii.

Right now, it looks like blu-ray is going to win. When prices start to come down and the market's over-saturated with blu-ray discs, people are going to start looking at purchasing a blu-ray player. And if the PS3 is within $200 of a blu-ray player at that point in time, expect them to sell.

Reply

In other news, when does he think Sony will actually turn a profit on the PS3?

Reply

i carnt see it happening yes playstation branding has all the morons brainwashed but wii like ds is all new and fresh and hits the gaming nail on the head ps3 ios just out dated as a gaming consept

the surround sound thing is somthing ps3 360 fans carnt comput they big up digital out yet its proven desceet channeling for 5.1 can be just as good dennons 2.1 system proves that
put wii has the imursion speaker that allows true imursion sound no digital out can match that

gaming tech is what advances games not movie tech

wii is DA GAME


sony are out DA GAME

Reply

I honestly think Nintendo have hit a gold mine with the wii, its like everyone says when your parents get home and ask you if you want to play a bit of sports then you just know that something is right.

HD may be the way forward but in Ireland we're still waking upto digital in SD never mind HD. To people who say that the wii is below PS2 graphics wise I recommend you play Excite Truck the graphics were stunning they are at least on par with the Gran Turismo games and this is a first gen game imagine when developers have really started to push the system.

I do agree however that Nintendo really have to sort something out about online play.

Reply