Here in the armchair analyst era, every slight change in sales trends seems to have become reason for panic, or at least in-depth discussion. Thus, when Gamasutra released the above chart as part of their NPD analysis, the rumblings began. Are Wii sales dropping off? Is there some truth in Dave Perry's recent doom-saying about the future of the Wii? Here's our question: can we really discern anything other than current sales numbers from this chart? For a variety of reasons, we'll say no.
This sales chart takes only that very thing into account: sales. While it's a great analytical tool for tracking said sales, we would caution anyone from drawing too many conclusions about market trends from hardware sales only. From this, of course, certain things can be extrapolated; US sales of anything and everything tend to drop in the pre-tax day period, but consoles are still riding a holiday wave of demand in January and February. In months when a particular console surges, there was probably a hotly-desired game driving those sales. But all of that is guesswork if we're only working with pure sales numbers -- in order to truly analyze what's going on, we have to look at a variety of factors.
In order to better illustrate just what we mean, we constructed the above chart that tracks the same period in the Xbox 360's history -- it's from last year, covering the same months as Gamasutra's chart. You can immediately see some similarities; sales drop off in March as people prepare to send chunks of cash to the government, and they surge again in April. But there are hidden factors as well, such as the release of The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, in late March. That surely had an impact on sales, considering it was one of the top sellers for April -- which is when the 360 sales also increased. Such a singularly fantastic game also serves as a system-seller. But this chart doesn't take that into account; we have to already know, or research, such little factoids in order to draw conclusions.
From the chart alone, it seems that, during the same period, Xbox 360 sales are somewhat lackluster when compared to Wii sales. In April of this year, Nintendo moved 360,000 Wii units, compared to just under 300,000 Xbox 360s. But considering how much discussion there has been about the different markets the two systems are targeting, does even that fact really tell us much? In the fullness of time, perhaps it will. Right now, it's all just numbers, and at this early stage of the latest hardware cycle, it continues to be anybody's game.
What these charts also don't tell us is that both systems have dealt with -- or, in the case of the Wii, are still dealing with -- shortage issues. The early months of the 360 were plagued by shortages, and much of the analysis of that time takes that into account. Thus it's hard to determine anything from our pretty little chart because, in a perfect world, who can say how many units Microsoft might have moved? The same can be said for the Wii, which is currently at the very same stage in its lifecycle. Would sales change if demand could be completely filled? It's likely, but we won't venture into that realm of guesswork.
And speaking of game sales, just as Oblivion likely had an effect on 360 sales, right now it seems to be Wii Play that is partially driving sales of Nintendo's console. For less than you'll pay for another next gen system, you get a console with a bundled title, and the added Wii Play gives you an extra remote, as well as another set of minigames. Fun for the whole family, and economical -- but little room for such a correlation in basic sales charts. Which is fine, really; after all, they're just basic sales charts, and it takes a larger scope of information to get a real picture. It's very likely that everything will change come the holiday season, when all three systems will be whipping out their big guns, so it seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions from a slight drop in sales.
Gamasutra's charts are very well-presented and offer a great tracking tool for those who love to pore over numbers, but we caution anyone from drawing any conclusions about what will happen in this hardware cycle just yet. Of course, being hardcore Wii fans, we are pulling for our baby, but it's still early for everyone. Take the charts just as Gamasutra presents them -- as sales charts -- and little more. When it comes to deeper analysis, the truth is in more than just the numbers, and only time will tell how things will fall out.
From the chart alone, it seems that, during the same period, Xbox 360 sales are somewhat lackluster when compared to Wii sales. In April of this year, Nintendo moved 360,000 Wii units, compared to just under 300,000 Xbox 360s. But considering how much discussion there has been about the different markets the two systems are targeting, does even that fact really tell us much? In the fullness of time, perhaps it will. Right now, it's all just numbers, and at this early stage of the latest hardware cycle, it continues to be anybody's game.
What these charts also don't tell us is that both systems have dealt with -- or, in the case of the Wii, are still dealing with -- shortage issues. The early months of the 360 were plagued by shortages, and much of the analysis of that time takes that into account. Thus it's hard to determine anything from our pretty little chart because, in a perfect world, who can say how many units Microsoft might have moved? The same can be said for the Wii, which is currently at the very same stage in its lifecycle. Would sales change if demand could be completely filled? It's likely, but we won't venture into that realm of guesswork.
And speaking of game sales, just as Oblivion likely had an effect on 360 sales, right now it seems to be Wii Play that is partially driving sales of Nintendo's console. For less than you'll pay for another next gen system, you get a console with a bundled title, and the added Wii Play gives you an extra remote, as well as another set of minigames. Fun for the whole family, and economical -- but little room for such a correlation in basic sales charts. Which is fine, really; after all, they're just basic sales charts, and it takes a larger scope of information to get a real picture. It's very likely that everything will change come the holiday season, when all three systems will be whipping out their big guns, so it seems a bit early to be drawing conclusions from a slight drop in sales.
Gamasutra's charts are very well-presented and offer a great tracking tool for those who love to pore over numbers, but we caution anyone from drawing any conclusions about what will happen in this hardware cycle just yet. Of course, being hardcore Wii fans, we are pulling for our baby, but it's still early for everyone. Take the charts just as Gamasutra presents them -- as sales charts -- and little more. When it comes to deeper analysis, the truth is in more than just the numbers, and only time will tell how things will fall out.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-25-2007 @ 5:05PM
Alisha Karabinus said...
No, Metroid will not have online multiplayer. They've already confirmed the lack. I know that disappoints a lot of people, but eh. Metroid is about a good single player experience; that's all I want from Corruption, me. YMMV.
There are games coming. There are games now. I'd think by now that we would have learned to expect that the first year of a new console is somewhat lacking....
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7-25-2007 @ 5:11PM
Anticrawl said...
Well I live on a college campus and I can most certainly say yes. They use to buzz about it all the time now I don't hear one word of it. The sales figures last month may say otherwise but public perception has all but dissapeared here which is a little sad. We need a few great games to generate more talk about the console. Bring me Brawl and Mario!
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7-25-2007 @ 5:12PM
Mr Khan said...
Its summer, the time when people do things outside, and spend money on things that generally aren't video game consoles
It would be better to make this predictions after the Wii was out for one year, because these annual patterns have to be taken into account
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7-25-2007 @ 5:13PM
Tim said...
I don't think it's "fever wearing off". It is a combination of fewer new games, continuing shortage, and natural trend.
A console isn't going to constantly sell like wildfire. I think the dip in sales is perfectly natural.
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7-25-2007 @ 5:14PM
Anticrawl said...
I would also like to see a wild new marketing campaign. Short of the 3-4 "Wii would like to play commercials" I see about once a month I hear little to nothing about the Wii unless I'm on the internet. Those commercials are cute and all but really don't seem to be buzz worthy.
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7-25-2007 @ 5:40PM
Erik said...
If I could find a Wii, I'd buy it. If they are THIS far out of stock and all of the stores in my area sound like people call them hundreds of times a day ... I might be concerned.
This shortage is taking its toll on these numbers, I can guarantee that.
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7-25-2007 @ 6:22PM
hvnlysoldr said...
I gots a fever and the only cure is WIIIIIII@!
Thanks Alisha for putting the numbers into better perspective. I also agree with you that Metroid is more single player experience. It's First Person Adventure with shooting.
I think we should do a wwp discussing Sheik and Samus' gender because reading Hail-NekoYasha of Awkward Zombie brief that female fans want Sheik a guy and male fans want Sheik female.
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7-25-2007 @ 6:45PM
Jack said...
For a site called "Nintendo Wii Fanboy" you certainly do ask this question a bit too often. I swear, twice a week there's an article along the lines of "O NOEZ, teh Wii iz a FADdz0rZ?"
COME ON. Do your jobs and champion the system!
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7-25-2007 @ 6:53PM
JonnyBoy2U said...
I know right Jack? Every time I come to wiifanboy I feel like I walked in to the ps3fanboy section or joystiq's main page.
STOP all the Wii bashing and the constant doubt creating. You've done it for over a year now and the Wii is STILL selling like crazy. Its NOT a fad. Wii controls DO work fine for most games. And there will be great games for our system.
However this doesn't mean that the Wii is perfect. It still has a lot of issues that Nintendo needs to work out.
I get that Joystiq is biased against the Wii but DAMN not even wiifanboy can say anything positive?
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7-25-2007 @ 6:57PM
hvnlysoldr said...
@Jack
Just because we're fanboys don't mean we don't have a lick of sense. We also still feel the other fence the other fanboys feel. That bitterness from being behind the pack and that the next game would turn things around.
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7-25-2007 @ 7:12PM
Alisha Karabinus said...
Actually, Jack ol' buddy, that's kinda the whole thrust of the article! A slight drop over a few months in the summer is certainly no indication that the system sales are dying down any time soon. In fact, it's the people who are freaking out because someone made a chart that I'm hoping to silence. Wii sales are strong because the Wii is strong. The end.
@Erik: It's not just you. Apparently in some places, it's not so hard to find them, but I know several people around here who are still looking... guess it's just luck of the region. Here's hoping you get yours soon.
@hvnlysoldr: Please don't tell me that people want Samus to be a guy! I can understand a split over Sheik (because, hey, it's canonical, thanks, Nintendo... well, not technically, but in reference), but Samus is the bitchinest of all game heroines ever. She's a postergirl for girl gamers everywhere (and in the zero suit, I guess for guy gamers, too... *koff*)
But maybe I will do that.
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7-25-2007 @ 7:19PM
Erik said...
Thanks for the well wishing. :) I have a feeling that I'll have one by the end of the week, come hell or high water.
I've also heard suspicious rumors from BestBuy that their Nintendo manufacturing is going to be more plentiful soon. 4 months ago they ramped up production, from what it sounded like.
And, if Nintendo is saying 16 million in the next year or... 6 months? I have a feeling we're going to see that production push very shortly.
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7-25-2007 @ 7:26PM
Alisha Karabinus said...
Those rumors tend to change depending on who's speaking; lots of anti-Nintendo folks are saying it's all fabricated, blah blah blah, you know how it goes. But with the avalanche of awesome games a-coming, I expect they'll have to do something about the shortages!
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7-25-2007 @ 7:26PM
Skippy said...
For now at least, Wii sales are entirely controlled by how many Nintendo can ship. If they can ship more, there will be more sales. If fewer are shipped, the sales figures will go down.
We won't really have a good idea of sales trends until there are enough Wiis out there for anyone to be able to walk into a store and get one off the shelf at any given time.
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7-25-2007 @ 7:29PM
Kristian said...
We just need games.. come on Nintendo.. Dont pull a Gamecube on us. You have something going here. I haven't toughed my Wii in weeks nothing to play. I wanna try out the Bigs but not enough to buy it. Is Metroid 3 gonna play multiplayer online?
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7-25-2007 @ 7:51PM
sracer said...
It makes me laugh when the tinfoil hat set claims that Nintendo is fabricating the shortage in order to maintain demand. When Nintendo regularly sells 50-100% more than their competition, those claims not only ring hollow, they defy common sense.
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7-25-2007 @ 7:56PM
brian Mita said...
Dave Perry doesn't know what he's talking about... given that it's very hard to get a wii still with most retail stores with no on-hand inventory longer than a day, this is less about demand than it is supply. Sure the national retailers may have less demand in more rural areas and be buying less, but they can move units around to where demand is still high. it's not about games at this point because a lot of my friends that want one still don't have one.
I think this is really about Nintendo making less units available in June so they can have more available for back to school and the holidays.
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7-25-2007 @ 8:52PM
cloudwilliam said...
The thing that really threw me about the Gamasutra analysis is that based on their analysis of *weekly* sales, Nintendo moved fewer units in June than in May. They arrived at that conclusion by calling May a four week month and June a five week month. I'm not sure what they meant by that. May has 31 days; June has 30. My math says May has one more day than June, not one week less.
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7-25-2007 @ 11:46PM
Soiden said...
It may be wearing off a bit, say, from 500k to 497k or something like that xD
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7-25-2007 @ 11:58PM
Vasco said...
Say what you will i can walk in anywhere and get a Xbox 360 or a PS3, but I can't get a Wii unless I lucked out and walked in during delivery.
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7-26-2007 @ 4:51AM
ouj said...
"Say what you will i can walk in anywhere and get a Xbox 360 or a PS3, but I can't get a Wii unless I lucked out and walked in during delivery."
Here in Northern Europe Wii is available just about everywhere, anytime. It's quite amusing that Nintendo "cannot" adjust the production towards US market more if they still have shortages there.
I believe the shortage is largely fabricated. Gamecube sold around 20 million. The real test is around the 20-25 million mark for Wii. If it still sells wells after that, then Nintendo is onto something. Right now, the large majority of buyers are existing Nintendo fans.
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7-26-2007 @ 8:42AM
UpIrons said...
Mr Khan is correct. I think this is attributed to summer mostly. Look at the sales for all the consoles, they were all low except sony went up by 1 point - due to the buzz about the lowered price ps3 no doubt. Even with all that buzz, sony only went up 1 point - my point being that this time of year is not good for video game sales. Why do you think most distributors wait until fall to release the big games? I would bet big money on the fact that this same chart will show a huge increase in all consoles by October/November and Wii will be on top no doubt.
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7-26-2007 @ 9:50AM
Sherry said...
No Wii:{ Still looking and dreaming.
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7-26-2007 @ 10:28AM
Neal Eaton said...
I don't think that the 'WII FEVER' is starting to fade...I think this has everything to do with constrained supply and seasonal buying patterns.
When the 'holy trinity' start hitting next month (!) and into holiday, there will STILL be shortages. When WiiFit/Blanace Board hits in the spring, it will be a full blown fever again.
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7-26-2007 @ 3:31PM
Gary Combs said...
I actually just purchased a Wii from Circuit City online. I've only seen Wii's in the store one time, that was several months ago at a Target. I have wanted a Wii for a long time just finally decided to cough up the money and get a bundle. I figure with the Legend of Zelda, WiiSports, and Paper Mario, that'd keep me busy enough until Metroid Prime 3 comes out. Oh, I so can't wait.
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7-26-2007 @ 3:43PM
Gordon said...
ouj has an excellent point, we need to wait and see what happens after its sold 20m and see how sales are. Im worried they might go the wayu of the cube and have only good 1st party games.
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7-26-2007 @ 4:12PM
hiitsreality said...
"It makes me laugh when the tinfoil hat set claims that Nintendo is fabricating the shortage in order to maintain demand."
Never heard of Peter Main, huh?
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7-30-2007 @ 12:10PM
Jake said...
I wish Metroid had online multiplayer because I think it could be potentially very fun. But, I wouldn't want something half-assed. It is probably better that they used the effort to further perfect the single player aspect than to add multiplayer. But, multi sure would have been cool.
I am still buying the game so they are doing the right thing as far as I am concerned. However, multiplayer done right would have prevented me, and many others, from selling the game into the used market after completing the single player. I think that is one of the biggest reasons for devs to put multi into games. Good multi never really gets old.
As for the numbers dropping, it would be more cause for concern if the decline was more dramatic, imo.
Nintendo is in such a great position because they could probably drop the price $100 if they wanted. Once sales finally slow, they can easily recreate Wii fever with a massive price drop. Who wouldn't get one for $150?
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