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E3 'headed for extinction,' says Pachter

Watch out, E3! According to Wedbush Morgan analyst and man Michael Pachter, you could soon be heading the way of the Dodo, the Quagga, and decent Sonic games. In a note to investors titled "Entertainment Software: E3 2008 Review: The Bad, The Great, and the BORING!," the famously quotable analyst concluded that the latest E3 was a crushing disappointment, and described the event as "ill-timed," "boring," and "headed for extinction." Oh, Pachty, you sure know how to make a major industry event down on its luck feel special!

The show, which has been criticized by other industry figures of late, isn't beyond saving itself, but Pachter thinks it should be pulled back to no later than early June, and that "the spectacle should be restored by increasing the size of the show space."

To give this piece of news a Nintendo slant, we'll add that Pachter deemed Nintendo's presentation to be "just right", but did note the grumblings from core gamers that not enough announcements were made for them.

Pachter: Unbalanced Wii Fit shipments due to weak dollar


Superstar game industry analyst Michael Pachter told the LA Times that Nintendo's smaller North American supply of Wii Fit units can be blamed, just like everything else that has anything to do with business, on the value of the dollar. "The shortage demonstrates one consequence of the weak dollar. We're seeing companies ignore their largest market simply because they can make a greater profit elsewhere." Then -- seemingly to make sure blogs quoted him -- Pachter added, "They know that Americans will be just as fat a few months from now." The article states that about 500,000 Wii Fits were shipped to the U.S., versus "as many as 2 million" to Europe.

We think that if the disparity is indeed strategic, it has less to do with the decreasing value of the dollar, and more to do with two other trends: Nintendo of Europe's increased friendliness toward nontraditional "expanded audience" games, and European gamers' acceptance of exorbitant game prices. It's not so much that $90 is low for Wii Fit -- it's that they can get away with selling it for $140 in Europe.

Gallery: Wii Fit

NY Times tackles Wii's tie-in ratio

The Wii has comfortably outsold its rivals since it first launched, but it does lag behind in at least one other respect: the number of games sold per console. The low software tie-in ratio of the Wii is hardly a new issue, but it's one that shouldn't be ignored.

According to a new article in The New York Times, Wii owners typically purchase only 3.7 games a year, a figure that compares unfavorably with Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 owners (4.7 and 4.6 games per year respectively). This, argues the article, is just one of the effects of the expanded audience that Nintendo has captured -- as the New York Times piece observes, most Wii owners seem to treat their console as little more than a Wii Sports machine.

There are solutions, however, with Wii Fanboy favorite Michael Pachter suggesting third-party publishers should adopt a different approach to marketing their wares. As Pachter puts it, "Advertising on GameInformer and 1up.com just isn't reaching [the expanded] audience."

[Via Joystiq]

Pachter: Wii Fit to raise Wii demand, keep shortages going


Aside from his prediction that he thinks Wii Fit will sell 3-4 million this year, Michael Pachter has grabbed another estimation out from within his bag of tricks: Wii Fit will keep Wii shortages going as it will increase demand for the console. Pachter cited Nintendo's plan to market the crap out of Wii Fit, stating "the increased buzz will drive increased demand for the already difficult to find Wii hardware." Well, we know the UK is crazy over Wii Fit, but Nintendo shouldn't have as hard a time filling demand over there as they have had here in the states.

On Pachter's part, this is a pretty safe play to make. The preorders at Amazon are going through the roof and with Wii Fit being on Good Morning, America recently, we're sure the public is very receptive to the product. We're still not sure about that price tag, though.

Gallery: Wii Fit

Pachter: Wii to sell 700,000 in March

With the official NPD numbers due any day now, Michael Pachter has tossed out his prediction for the winner of March in the U.S.: Nintendo. He is claiming that the Wii will have moved 700,000 units in the month, with Smash Bros. Brawl being the big reason. Even though he says that Nintendo is still sending more units to Europe than the U.S., he says that March will be different because of, obviously, Smash Bros. Brawl.

And, even better is Pachter's prediction that April will see Nintendo doing even better, with both Mario Kart Wii and the Pokemon Mystery Dungeon sequels being huge draws. Let's hope he's right!

Pachter says 3-4 million for Wii Fit in 2008


Apparently, there's a lot of folks out there looking to tone up their life with Wii Fit. That's what Michael Pachter thinks, as he predicts a whopping 3-4 million copies of Wii Fit being sold in this year alone. That's a $90 package that he expects between 3 and 4 million folks to buy. Wow.

"Wii Fit will sell 3 million to 4 million in the US if they market aggressively," Pachter said. Well, if Pachter read Wii Fanboy, he'd know that they are putting a lot into their marketing of the game. And, if Pachter's lack of reading game blogs are any indication, the man is woefully under-prepared to make any kind of prediction.

Gallery: Wii Fit



[Via Gamespot]

Pachter: Shortages coming to an end later this year

Michael Pachter is at it again. This time, of all people, he spoke with a writer for the Dallas Morning News. Now, we're not experts in this institution that reports real world news, but we do know that video game news tends to usually fall below their radar. But they care about the Wii because, well, everyone and their grandmother bought one.

Regardless, Pachter did, and he is saying that those of us in the U.S. need to blame it on the rain the Brits. You see, his estimation is that due to the weak U.S. dollar and high demand for the console in the UK, Nintendo has been shipping more consoles over there because they profit more from sales in that country. This has supposedly been the reason that store shelves in the U.S. still don't have the console stocked.

His belief is that the console will be more readily available in the U.S. later on this year, when the dollar is expected to bounce back some. Based on the fact that the console released over a year ago, though, we're not going to hold our breath.

[Thanks, Matt!]

Nintendo plans largest-ever marketing campaign for Wii Fit

If anyone's going to get a workout from Wii Fit, it's going to be Nintendo's marketing department. According to Michael Pachter, Nintendo is preparing the "biggest marketing campaign in its history" for the North American release of Wii Fit on May 19th. He deduces that all of these marketing dollars won't be wasted on GameStop alone, but will be aimed instead at promoting in (and with) more mainstream retailers Target and Best Buy.

Besides causing you to see Wii Fit freaking everywhere, this push will have a positive effect on the gaming world in general: according to Pachter, Nintendo will start increasing American Wii shipments by about 150,000 units a week. If you don't have a Wii yet, you can get some early exercise traipsing back and forth to Target for the next few weekends!

Gallery: Wii Fit

EA: Wii will continue to dominate

EA has decided to put on the Michael Pachter Hat apparently, as the company is betting that the Wii is going to continue its trend of crushing all of its competitors in the games space throughout this year. How do we know this? Well, let's just put it this way: many Bothans gave their life to get us this information.

Actually, IGN published EA's projected numbers, which show the Wii selling between 5.5 - 6.5 million units in North America and 6.5 - 7.5 million units in Europe throughout the 2008 calendar year. This fantasy world in which EA has built for itself also has a nice gumdrop waterfall, we hear.

We're not saying the Wii can't do those figures (we don't really have much experience in predicting the future), and EA's backing of Nintendo seems to be a sound enough strategy, but we're not sure we'd put the farm on Europe pushing more Wii units than North America this year.

Pachter: Take out Wii Sports, sell Wii for $199

Michael Pachter, the man who makes a living predicting sales trends and corporate decisions in the gaming industry, is saying that Nintendo should cut Wii Sports out of the package and sell the Wii for a cool $199. "I think that if Nintendo were to do so and cut the price to $199, it would still sell a piece of Nintendo software to 80% of new Wii purchasers, and would end up effectively lowering revenues per console by only around $10," he explained in an interview with Gamasutra. You see, Pachter thinks this is not going to be that great of a year for the Wii.

Pachter further explains that the high-definition features of the other consoles make them "more likely to end up in the living room, which could relegate the Wii to the playroom." He says this could be bad for the Wii, as if it "is not at the center of the home entertainment system, software sales could suffer as a result."

We can't say we particularly agree with Pachter. We're not sure we'd see Nintendo cut the price on the Wii anytime soon, and if they did, we would hope it didn't involve losing one of the best experiences one can have on the console, let alone the best Wiimote trainer we've ever had time with. What do you folks think?

Pachter foresees Wii coup in 2008

2007 was the year of the Wii. So, which console's cuisine will reign supreme in 2008? According to super-analyst Michael Pachter, that would be the PS3.

In the latest issue of EGM, Pachter predicts that the Wii will fall to the PS3 this year. The thing that will bring about this fall is not software (well, that too), but price. That's right, Pachter predicts that the price will soon be right for the PS3. The Wedbush Morgan analyst stated, "I think the Wii momentum will last until the Playstation 3 is under $300, so another year."

Perhaps Pachter is making too many assumptions: Will the PS3 drop to under $300? And if so, does that necessarily mean that Nintendo won't cut the price of the Wii to compete? If Nintendo doesn't price drop, will people even care (check eBay, for example)?

Of course, it's his job to make assumptions, so we suppose we can't fault him for that.

[Via NeoGAF]

Pachter: Xbox 360 September victory won't last

Michael Pachter? Dude knows his stuff. Totally called Halo 3's the Xbox 360's September sales victory. But dab those tears away, because even though corks might be a-popping now at Microsoft Towers, the Wedbush Morgan man expects the victory to be a fleeting one at best.

"Although sales of Halo 3 accounted for all (and then some) of the growth during the month, the game clearly drove hardware sales that will position the industry for even greater sales in November and December, when many Halo players will be ready for a new challenge," Pachter told Gamasutra.

Loose translation: the Wii will soon have clambered back on its throne, bloodied yet still so very far from beaten. Now, do we all agree?

Pachter: Halo 3 drove Xbox 360 sales above Wii in September

Gaming analyst Michael Pachter is reporting that the Wii could be knocked from its comfortable, safe throne this month, as he is predicting the September NPD numbers will show the Xbox 360 on top. Apparently, some game called Halo 3 was a big deal and everyone perhaps went nutty over it. Yeah, we don't get it.

Pachter explained his predictions, stating "forecasts for the Wii and the DS reflect our belief that supplies remain somewhat constrained." He added that "Our Xbox 360 forecast reflects an expected boost in hardware sales due to the introduction of Halo 3." Well, games do make the system, so we guess we understand.

Oh well, what goes up, must come down, right?

Pachter predicts HD Wii

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter thinks that, just as Nintendo eschewed the normal method of competing in the "console war"-- a console at least as powerful as its contemporaries-- so will they break the pattern of the traditional release cycle. He sees the falling costs of graphics processors and rising public demand for high definition possibly leading Nintendo to release a Wii that can output in HD in "two to three years."

"Consumers may hope for improved graphics, and my guess is that Nintendo will comply," Pachter told GamePro. An HD Wii would necessarily be an all-new console, with games designed for HD graphics. Are you ready for Wii 2 in 2009? Is the general public ready for the sting of console obsolescence?

Pachter: Nintendo wins another E3

The analyst from Wedbush Morgan seems to think Nintendo walked out of the recently concluded E3 as the victor, for the second year in a row, commenting to gaming mag GamePro. He also commented that Sony would've walked away the victor, given news of their recent price drop for the PS3, but Nintendo still presented " new hardware and decent software introductions."

Of course, you already have our general impressions of the keynote immediately following it, but looking at the variety of content available for Wii owners now that the show has concluded, we're happy about the future of the Wii. And the experiences it'll provide.

[Via Codename Revolution]

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